Saturday 18 January 2014

On Global Warming

I don't like the term "climate change" as that seems too vague. Of course the climate is changing; it has always been changing. And what possible evidence could one present to "disprove climate change"? In any case, the "climate change" issue usually devolves to the warming effects of CO2 on the Earth's global climate, and whether this is caused by human activities.

Therefore, for what it's worth, here is my current position on Anthropogenic Global Warming, summarized in four simple questions and my own brief answers:

1.  Is global warming occurring?
Well probably yes, over several decades, although rather slowly, in fits and starts, and with some uncertainties. Oh by the way, it was already warming before humans began releasing huge quantities of CO2 into the atmosphere, albeit at a slower rate.

2.  Are human CO2 emissions causing the warming?
Perhaps, at least some of it. Although not an expert, I have seen enough of both sides to claim that 50% +/-40% of the current global warming is caused by human activity, but it is not all CO2 related: there are localized heating effects like city "heat islands", jungle deforestation, and nuclear power plant heating that must produce some of the warming. And then there are also various natural processes and cycles which have their effects. Thus, there are lots of drivers behind global warming, of which CO2 is but one.

3.  Are increased CO2 and global warming a problem?
For some people and ecosystems yes, for sure, but for others, it will probably be beneficial. Significant sea level rise (unlikely to occur in this century) would cause problems in many places, but higher CO2 levels may increase plant productivity everywhere, and northern regions may become more hospitable. We should not presume that the climate we have grown accustomed to should always remain the same. The world have been both much warmer and much colder in the distant past. Whether any long-term global warming is overall a good or a bad thing, I cannot say.

4.  Is there anything we can do about it?
To be pessimistic, given the failure of the Kyoto Accord and subsequent international meetings, it seems unlikely. Even the European countries who were pushing most for changes have seemingly backed away from their own plans and targets. Some of the proposed schemes for reducing CO2 levels are unrealistic, ineffective, or even dangerous in my opinion. Nevertheless, fossil fuels will eventually run out or become expensive again, and renewable energy sources will continue to expand. Some regions have already reduced their CO2 emissions, so the changes people want will eventually happen, just not as fast as some would prefer.

Having said all this, however, I also believe that most of the practical suggestions made for individuals and organizations to reduce their environmental impact and use of fossil fuels are probably good things for people to do anyway: reject, reduce, re-use, live within our means, be good stewards of what God has entrusted to us, buy a smaller house, take the bus or ride a bike, use electricity carefully, reduce our consumption, improve efficiencies, and so on. Let's leave the political hype alone and focus on areas we can agree on and do something about!

If you want to investigate both sides of the issue further, here two key web sites. Both have very long reports with lots of data, or you can just read their summaries to get their gist:
http://www.ipcc.ch/index.htm
http://climatechangereconsidered.org/
For a later article I published on this topic (similar content), see:
https://www.ngtimes.ca/thoughts-and-balance-on-climate-change/

Finally, I am open to change and reserve the right to adjust my thinking without prior notice. 😃

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